As a student of marketing and sales I love Presidential elections and I have devised a system that has successfully predicted every presidential contest I can remember. How accurate? My system has never failed, not once.
My theory is that the selling skills of the candidates determine the outcome of the race more than any other factor.
My formula for picking the winner is simple, apolitical, and accurate.
Here it is:
- Forget the polls
- Forget the party platforms
- Forget the issues
- Forget the debates
- Forget the political ads
- Even forget the political parties
If you objectively evaluate the selling skills of the candidates...
the better salesperson always wins the election.
Don't believe me? Let's look at the last 8 contests:
In 2008 Barack Obama won over John McCain. McCain was a solid guy and a war hero, but Obama was the better salesperson who sold the nation on hope and change.
2004 Bush wins over Kerry
This was the election where George "I'm askin' for your vote" Bush beat John "I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it" Kerry. I worked on the Kerry campaign. He was no salesman.
2000 Bush wins over Gore
Bush had his "common man" appeal, Gore had academic appeal. More common men vote that academics.
1996 Clinton wins over Dole
Clinton, was and still is, one of the greatest salespeople to ever run for public office. Dole was a war hero. No contest.
1992 Clinton wins over George Bush Sr.
Bush Senior was a clear communicator and far from a pushover. But Bill Clinton bested him by communicating on an emotional level as well.
1988 Bush Sr. wins over Dukakis
Michael Dukakis was the guy who calmly quoted government policy when CNN's Bernard Shaw asked how he would react if his wife were brutally raped and murdered. Emotional connection with voters? Zero. Bush Senior won.
1984 Reagan wins over Mondale
Regan, "The Great Communicator" vs. Walter "Mon-Dull." No contest.
1980 Reagan wins over Jimmy Carter
Carter was no match for "The Great Communicator."
1976 Carter wins over Ford
Carter had a very engaging personality. Ford stumbled a lot and began a speech in Iowa by booming the enthusiastic words, "It's GREAT to be in OHIO!!"
I didn't vote for all of the winners but in my objective opinion, the best salesperson won every contest. Think about this as your organization plans its next round of sales calls!
Taking into account the poor sales skills demonstrated by Mr. Romney, and the continued high level of sales skills demonstrated by Mr. Obama, my formula predicts an Obama win.